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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."